Are you as unique as you think?

August 19th, 2008

I am totally unique.

Nobody on this planet is exactly like me. Nobody thinks my thoughts, dreams my dreams, or lives my life. In so many ways, I am a snowflake: an utterly unique, totally individual, mold-breaking creature.

And yet, I am vastly predictable. For example, I am guaranteed to cry at any and all opportunities — and I mean ANY. An episode of The Simpsons where Homer feels bad about not being a good father. Lethal Weapon 4 where Joe Pesci talked about Froggy. This ad for New Zealand Post (I have to change the channel when it comes on, or risk breaking down into an incoherent sobbing mess).

I am guaranteed to cheer, loudly, at sporting and theatrical events. I am guaranteed to want to see the latest big-budget action flick. I am guaranteed, in short, to behave in certain ways, ways that can be tapped into and understood and used to identify me as a potential customer.

So am I unique or aren’t I? In Sunday’s Guardian, a variety of thinkers sounded off on the Pros and Cons of a Google World. Adam Curtis, the director of The Power of Nightmares (a TV documentary on terrorism), had this to say:

The millions of searches that engines like Google record and store reveal the shifting desires and fears of individuals. They’re leading to a new fragmented sensibility among millions of people in the way they see and experience the world. Machines like Google know something about us as human beings that we really don’t want to know - that we are not individuals: ‘If you like this then you will like that…’. So Google is a paradox. It gives us the feeling we are wild and free individuals, powerfully reinforcing an idea of us as heroic figures in the consumer age. Yet at the same time it is powerfully proving the opposite - that we are completely predictable. Out of that is going to come some very interesting political ideas of how to organise society and also new artistic ideas. The really interesting question is whether it is really a cult….

Here is the thing: if we were truly unique and truly unpredictable; if our actions were in no way interconnected and in no way integrated; if we didn’t have some means of anticipating, to some degree, the behavior of others — our lives would be ruined.

You wouldn’t have any idea whether your co-workers would show up or whether your spouse would be waiting at home. Events that require critical mass, like rock concerts and political movements, would be impossible. And none of the products that tap into the short head of the marketplace would exist.

In order to function, the complexity of our lives requires repetition, patterns, and short cuts. If we had to make a truly individualized decision for every action we take, we would become paralyzed. If we tried to assimilate all of the data available to us at any given moment, we would go insane.

And so we become hybrids. We are predictable to one degree and individual to another, and the combination of the two produces a unique result that nonetheless overlaps with millions of others.

Thank goodness. If we didn’t overlap, there would be no airlines, no iPhone, no Internet.

So are you happy to be one of the crowd? Or do you see yourself as a unique individual?

P.S. I haven’t forgotten the last post, and my promise of a post on Big Tobacco and complex systems… coming soon! Also hat tip to Brian Hayes for the link to the Guardian story.

Interlocking boundaries in complex systems

August 15th, 2008

In complex systems, the boundaries are what define the size of the system. In the research that generated the VortexDNA algorithm, companies—which are themselves complex systems—were shown to have five boundaries:

  • staff
  • shareholders
  • customers
  • community
  • society

Each person’s complex system has five corresponding boundaries:

  • happiness
  • earning respect
  • relationships
  • community
  • society

We’ve explored before the concept that the boundaries are not independent of each other. Those companies, for example, that have an inclusive focus on all five boundaries are the ones that significantly outperform the rest of the market. This makes a lot of sense if you think about it: imagine a company that took really good care of its shareholders, its customers, its community and its society, but that neglected its employees. This fictional company would not have a sustainable model, because ultimately the people who drive the corporate activity would not continue to perform.

In previous posts, I’ve shown the integrated nature of these boundaries by drawing a circle encompassing the five individual boundary circles.

Interconnected boundaries

But I’ve recently been visualizing it in a different way, and I wanted to share it with you and get your feedback.

Boundaries in Complex Systems

The reason these things are interconnected isn’t because there’s a circle around them, it’s because each one interacts with the others, and any friction in that interaction affects the effectiveness of the system.

So the boundaries are really more like gears with ratchet teeth, which work really well if they’re all traveling in the same direction. If one focus area starts to go the other way, though, the system faces real problems. So the boundaries might be better visualized this way:

Five boundaries of complex systems

The innermost circle is Happiness, followed by Respect, Relationships, Community and Society. You can easily see how one boundary might be bigger than the next but they all have to work together for the system to function.

In my next post, I’ll discuss Big Tobacco and complex systems. For now, I invite your feedback on this revised model. Does it make sense to you?

The Five Stages of Twitter

August 12th, 2008

Hello, my friends. My apologies for the delay since my last post. I’ve been on holiday—took a visit to Aoraki/Mt. Cook, New Zealand’s highest peak. If you are ever in this part of the world, it’s worth a visit. Incredible hikes, glacier skiing, and the Sir Edmund Hillary Alpine Centre: what more could you want?

Anyhoo, I’m back now, and noticing an uptick in the number of articles mentioning the word ‘bubble’ or sneaking around its edges. Take for example Adam Lashinsky’s piece in Fortune, describing his sense of deja-vu during his visit to the Twitter offices:

Facebook and YouTube have yet to gush profits - a fact that is the talk of Silicon Valley. Yet here I am again, in July 2008, listening to yet another boyish entrepreneur discuss a quirky, compelling - and nearly revenue-less - startup… Only in the tech business are companies born with neither a clear reason for being nor a clue as to how they’ll produce profits.

When it comes to economic activity, be it real estate, stock markets, or venture capitalism, there’s a universal tension between the “fear of losing” and the “fear of not winning”. Nobody wants to be in the market when it crashes, but nobody wants to be out of the market if it keeps going up.

These two fears do battle as markets rise and fall, transitioning through what I’m going to call the Five Stages of Twitter. And, if you’ll indulge my flight of fancy, I’d like to take a look at them through the eyes of a potential shareholder, in a parallel universe where Twitter’s already had its IPO.

Stage 1: Denial
The first few indicators begin to amass that a market is ready for a slowdown, but you are having so much fun on Twitter, you’re absolutely certain they’ll be able to monetize it somehow. They can’t provide a service this important to this many people without finding a way to extract value. When they do, you know it’ll be huge—and you’ve got a big fear of not winning. You buy more stock.

Stage 2: Anger
You get the Fail Whale for the fifth day in a row. “They can’t get away with this!” you fume. You start the Twitter, Fix Your Servers! group on Facebook, and garner 42,376 supporters in three days. The passionate cries of the Twitterers show you how much grassroots support the company has—and you don’t want to miss out on that kind of movement. You buy more stock.

Stage 3: Bargaining
You read that Twitter not only has no revenue model, they actually think it would be a mistake to come up with one. The Twitter CEO says they’ll monetize “when the time is right.” Somewhere else, a man tells his girlfriend he’ll leave his wife “when the time is right.” You decide that you’ll only keep your shares if the company gets support from the venture community. They get $15 million. You buy more stock.

Stage 4: Depression
Your tweets get shorter and shorter as your tenuous grasp on the English language slips away. Where once 140 characters seemed like an impossible restriction, now you struggle to fill the space. You realize that the more time you spend Twittering, the less you have to tweet about. To feed your gaping spiritual void, you buy more stock.

Stage 5: Acceptance
Twitter has yet to realize any revenue. Ebay writes off $900 million of its purchase of Skype, a figure Google seems destined to outdo with YouTube. Facebook downgrades its valuation from $15 billion to $3.75 billion.

You sell your Twitter stock, and buy shares in Plurk instead.

The above commentary is intended to be a bit of a giggle, and does not constitute investment advice. Follow me on http://twitter.com/kcolbin.

VortexDNA presentation at WORLDCOMP’08: The International Conference on Semantic Web and Web Services

July 29th, 2008

As promised, I’ve created a simple video of my presentation at WORLDCOMP’08, the International Conference on Semantic Web and Web Services. The whole thing is around 20 minutes long; I’ve broken it up into three short segments.

You are also welcome to download the PowerPoint slide show here. (Note: It’s just over 5MBs.)

I hope you enjoy the presentation, and I look forward to your feedback in the comments!

Part I: What is a complex system?

Part II: Complex systems at work

Part III: Predicting human behavior

Coming soon, and has the Internet made you stupid?

July 28th, 2008

I thought it would be unfair to spend last week blogging about all the other presenters at WORLDCOMP’08 and OMMA Behavioral without sharing my own presentation with you! So I’ve recorded it, and I’m putting it together with the slide show so you can share in the love. Expect the video sometime tomorrow.

In the meantime, I’d like you to enjoy a delightful piece from Nicholas Carr at The Atlantic called, Is Google Making Us Stupid? Nicholas has written a long article about our growing inability to consume long articles.

Here is one of the many passages that should rekindle your ability to ponder:

For me, as for others, the Net is becoming a universal medium, the conduit for most of the information that flows through my eyes and ears and into my mind. The advantages of having immediate access to such an incredibly rich store of information are many, and they’ve been widely described and duly applauded. “The perfect recall of silicon memory,” Wired’s Clive Thompson has written, “can be an enormous boon to thinking.” But that boon comes at a price. As the media theorist Marshall McLuhan pointed out in the 1960s, media are not just passive channels of information. They supply the stuff of thought, but they also shape the process of thought. And what the Net seems to be doing is chipping away my capacity for concentration and contemplation. My mind now expects to take in information the way the Net distributes it: in a swiftly moving stream of particles. Once I was a scuba diver in the sea of words. Now I zip along the surface like a guy on a Jet Ski.

I too read less. These days, when I am inclined to pick up a “book” (a strange device with physical pages and black ink), I lean more towards Grisham than Goethe. I find that I have to force myself to read the sort of non-fiction that keeps my mind sharp and my thinking fresh.

So in the interest of keeping this post at a length commensurate with our newly shortened attention spans, I’ll stop here and turn it over to you. Have you found your thought processes changing with the use of the Interweb? Are you more in the market for ‘War and Peace’ or ‘Dilbert’? In short, has the Internet made you stupid?

OMMA Behavioral Panel: The Privacy Debate Gets Real

July 21st, 2008

From the agenda: The perennial arguments over user privacy, online targeting and tracking, and regulation vaulted to a new level this year even as advanced applications instigated more debate over the invasive nature of digital technologies. The Federal Trade Commission weighed in with policy recommendations, but do they address consumer needs and the full breadth of online targeting practices? Are social networking, ISP-level data collection and Web-based applications introducing new layers of complexity to the privacy debates? Is privacy the third rail that could very well stop or seriously retard many of the models for personalization and targeting that we’ve been discussing throughout OMMA Behavioral itself? A team of legal and industry experts take a gut check. Moderator: Wendy Davis. Speakers: Colin O’Malley, TRUSTe; Mike Benedek, AlmondNet; Bennet Kelley, Internet Law Center; Eric Goldman, High Tech Law Institute; Alistair Goodman, Exponential; Lauren Gelman, Center for Internet and Society.

Colin: There are absolutely policy issues with BT; there was a time when cookies wasn’t something we were addressing at all. There was also a time when PII was the real focus of what we needed to cover. PII is certainly still important, but anonymized profiles can also contain a vast amount of data, especially with a unique identifier. Anonymous data is incredibly important to the sense of privacy and security of someone online.

Mike: I would agree — basically, I would distinguish between the ISP behavioral companies that have a full view of everything the consumer does online, similar to adware and distinguished from traditional ad companies that only have access on a site where they dropped a cookie. The principles of the NAI are geared toward ensuring full notice and consent so that anytime data is collected from a consumer on a site, a privacy policy with an opt-out notice must be displayed. It’s important that as an industry we keep the government apprised of what we’re doing.

Alistair: I agree with what Colin said, the potential for abuse is always there. However, in practice, we are a long way away from any of that. As members of the NAI, we operate a fully transparent network, we’re not interested in collecting PII and using it for behavioral purposes; we’re actually interested in increasing reach for advertisers. We’re not at all interested in targeting them, because quite frankly a segment of one isn’t all that interesting. In practice, the fear could be there, but the kinds of aggregate data that we’re using and applying isn’t even close to some of the things that are going on in the offline space. We did this years ago, and got to the point where it’s okay to make tax data with your name and address available  to marketers for free — and I think that’s way creepier.

Bennet: Starting point is to consider the creepiness factor and its relationship to the concerns being raised. We’re talking about technology, and with tech comes a certain amount of fear because it’s unknown.

Eric: My proposal as starting point #1 is to retire the word ‘privacy’ as part of this conversation. It’s so complicated and rolls up so many different concepts, that we might be talking about different things and talking past each other. I think one of the hardest parts is that so many of the harms are inchoate harms — the starting point of a harm that may never get there. I definitely agree with the point that because it’s on the Internet we get a lot more stressed about things that we’ve accepted either directly or indirectly offline. Why are we treating the Internet differently? What is it that should make us more concerned? Finally, relevancy trumps creepiness — if BT delivered relevant, just in time information, many people would get over their creepiness, but the problem is that I actually have yet to see that happen.

Lauren: I disagree with almost everything everybody said. (KC: Ha ha!) I believe you suffer a privacy harm even if your identity isn’t stolen. I don’t think privacy is only about whether I’m going to get a more relevant ad; I think society changes when they live under an umbrella that their actions are being watched, and each small step takes us further along that path where you don’t know where each bit of information is coming from. I did a lot of talks about blogging and that you have to be up front about who you are and why you’re saying what you’re saying. The point is that if you’re going out on the web looking to buy a car you have certain expectations about how your information is going to come to you, and when it comes in different ways, that’s what’s creepy.

You can do a baseline shift, and say we’re not as bad as what’s happening offline, or this isn’t personally identifiable, or this is the white hat and it’s really the black hat people you should be going after, but there are certain expectations about how the market leaders act and set the standards for what’s acceptable. This concept that it’ll all be anonymous or pseudonymous is fine in a room full of industry people, but it’s not the sort of thing you can set standards to.

Do you think there should be regulation that would require people to opt in to this sort of targeting?

Lauren: I don’t see why that would be bad. If I want to buy a car, I want to give people the opportunity to market a better or cheaper car to me. The fact that I red a newspaper ad about it or that I have a friend who bought a car should be relevant. Create business models around a much richer way of connecting people who want to buy something with people who want to sell something.

Bennet: But if you’re going to regulate, it has to be on an opt out model.

Colin: There are real privacy issues, and I do think  the industry in the past has been able to hide behind a couple of fronts (like not collecting PII). You can be very creepy and seriously impact customer expectations without any PII. With ISP-level targeting as an example, we’re talking about the kind of behavioral targeting done by a third party that people know, and I don’t think that there’s a conceptual leap between what had been done in the past and what’s being done now. Really, most people have no idea that there are companies they’ve never heard of that are tracking what they do and selling that information to advertisers, and even the folks in D.C. don’t draw those distinctions either.

Mike: How much information the ISP-level targeting has on the consumer vs traditional BT companies. To agree here with Bennett, one important thing is to make that distinction. When ISP companies are integrated with a cable company, they see everything — EVERYTHING — that a consumer does when they’re online. A traditional targeting company only has access on the page where they dropped the cookie and on the page where we serve an ad, and, if they’re an NAI member, they’ll inform the consumer of what’s happening and give an opt out link. We don’t collect PII; we use non-persistent session cookies that expire after 60 days; as a matter of practice we don’t target after 30 page; we have a privacy officer who reviews every site that we work with  and I can’t tell you the number of deals we’ve walked away from because of inadequate privacy policy.

There are more companies out there that cleanse your computer of spyware than there are spyware companies (KC: I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s very repeatable). I’m a Canadian citizen, I can’t even vote in the US, but all I get are Barack Obama ads.

Lauren: Facebook is the most horrible privacy example; you cannot download any application from Facebook without granting access to that developer to all of your content. On Facebook if you check the box that says don’t share my cookies, you don’t get the app. When is the right place? Would you prefer that advertising 1.0 be regulated now while we wait? With apologies to TRUSTe, the policy model has been a disaster; who reads privacy policies? That’s why I think regulation is necessary. The beginning of something new is a time when the industry leaders who understand what the downstream privacy issues are can work with regulators to come up with standards with some teeth.

Bennet: It’s evolving — you’re seeing a new generation of privacy policy. The first approach was too much like lawyers. The second approach should be more like marketers. There was that story that a company put in their privacy policy that the first so many people  to respond would get $100, and it took six months to give the money away.

Eric: Offline, either consumers don’t care or they’ve found out and have been powerless to go about making a change. Either we have to regulate completely because consumers are blissfully ignorant, or we could take their ignorance to mean that talk is cheap.

Lauren: My students are the type of people who might have something online from college and now may have concerns about their Supreme Court clerkship.

Eric: This is a Lost Generation, and there’s always a Lost Generation — in the 70s it was marijuana. This generation put stuff online before we realized the power of publishing this sort of content. If a machine knows my idiosyncrasies and that’s the end of it, has there been a harm? Some privacy advocates would say yes, but I say who cares? If there’s harm, it comes from something after that fact — some adverse consequence where somebody thinks differently about me. So we might choose to focus our regulation on the next step, the action that generates the harm.

But what if a third party takes that data? Or what if that company is subpoenaed?

Bennet: When Oppenheimer first tested the atom bomb, there was a very real possibility that they could have blown up the atmosphere, but fortunately it was a small risk. Let’s deal with the actual issue rather than the hypothetical.

Alistair: We are dealing with a new industry; it’s only been 14 years since the first ad has been served. Let’s focus on the positive. This is the industry that enables all this content to be free, and if we go right to the end of the spectrum and say everything has to be opt-in, we begin to stifle creativity and access. I read 7 newspapers a day and I would never be able to do that if I had to pay for all seven. Swinging all the way to the other extreme seems Draconian.

Eric: If we treat ads as the price for things people want, that’s a lose-lose proposition for this industry. If ads are the cost, they become the pain, the thing to be avoided.

Alistair: It’s about taking relevancy further and finding out when it’s valuable rather than intrusive and annoying.

Colin: When we look at these decisions and say it needs to be opt-in or opt-out, it’s oversimplifying the issue. What we need to do is set standards for minimum behavior. Also, privacy statements are necessary. Even if only 4% or 2% or 1% are reading them, the people who are watching the industry are judging companies by their privacy statements and how well the companies adhere to them. We’re also seeing that consumers really dislike irrelevant ads. Relevancy is not just a marketer’s pitch; consumers want it, yet at the same time they’re really uncomfortable with targeting. There’s a disconnect between the high level of concern about targeting and the high level of desire for relevancy. There hasn’t been good enough dialogue between industry and consumers. “These are the corporate entities, this is why we’re targeting you, this is the potential upside, this is what’s going on…” It’s not enough to say there is an opt-out somewhere if you discover it; we have to talk to people, and right now is a fairly narrow window of time for us to control that messaging.

That’s it for today! Thanks for joining me at OMMA Behavioral :-) And, of course, your comments are always welcome!